Price momentum swinging back toward the bulls

October saw hyper gains for US equities, then a moderate retrace to form a higher low in November to sp'2019. December has already started on a significantly positive note, back into the 2100s. Underlying price momentum continues to swing back toward the equity bulls.

sp'monthly9

Summary

Eyes on the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, which is now ticking higher for the third consecutive month.

At the current rate, the sp'500 will see a bullish MACD cross in late Feb/early March.
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If we do see MARCON turn back to 7 in spring 2016, it then has to be asked, will 2016 finally see the hyper-upside that I had originally expected to see from summer 2015 onward?

In my view.. it will be necessary to see the Fed regularly raise rates - at least once a quarter, and at the same time, GDP/jobs data will need to remain at least 'reasonable'.


For the moment... holding at MARCON 6.

Remaining broadly bearish

Despite being net higher for October by 113pts (5.9%) at sp'2033, the monthly cycles remain outright bearish. Equity bears need to restrain the current rally to a monthly close no higher than the 10MA in the 2040s. Any monthly close in the 2050/60s will open the door to new historic highs into early 2016.

sp'monthly9

Summary

Without question things are now extremely borderline.

Based on past grand multi-year cycles, so long as the bears can hold the market for a monthly close under the monthly 10MA, things can be considered as still broadly bearish.

Indeed, the underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle remains deeply negative, and will very likely stay negative until January.. even if the market can climb into the sp'2100s.

*as ever.. it will be important to consider other indexes... along with other world markets.
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For the moment... holding at MARCON 6

Increasingly bearish

With a net monthly decline of -131pts (6.3%) at sp'1972, US equity indexes are increasingly bearish. Regardless of any continued bounce into mid September (even as high as the 2050/70 zone), there looks to be high probability that the Aug' low was not a key multi-month low.

sp'monthly9

Summary

Suffice to say, August settled with a very significant net decline of -131pts (6.3%) @ 1972, with an intra month low of 1867.

Price momentum continues to swing toward the equity bears at an accelerated rate. We've not seen price momentum this negative since June 2009.
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The next 3-5 weeks could prove to be even wilder than the latter half of August.
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Best case for the equity bears?

sp'weekly8

The low sp'1700s look viable in October, where they are multiple aspects of support.