Tuesday 31 December 2013

US equities hold MARCON 7 across 2013

US equities were extremely strong across 2013, with the sp' climbing from 1426 to 1848 - a gain of 422pts (29.6%).  There is simply zero sign of the current giant wave ending, and the market looks set to hold MARCON 6 or higher, until late 2015/early 2016.



...and the year comes to a close, with the market having held MARCON 7 across the entire year. Indeed, the market has held MARCON 7 since Feb'2012, and this is now the most powerful up trend since the late 1990s.

The outlook for 2014

My broader outlook is the following...


If the above scenario is generally correct, then we'll see a major wave lower in summer/autumn 2014, but that will only be an intermediate low. Whether you want to call it a 4, D, or whatever, I sure don't think the multi-year top is likely until late 2015/early 2016.

In terms of MARCON, even a 20% decline will likely only take us to MARCON 6.

Underlying monthly price momentum remains so high, it will take a good 9-12 months, from the moment a top if put in, along with a 20% correction, for underlying momentum to turn negative.

So..we close 2013...with the US market holding at MARCON 7

Friday 22 November 2013

Equities holding at MARCON 7

The US indexes continue to climb, now 730pts higher on the sp'500, since the ongoing multi-month wave began in Oct'2011. There looks to be a further 10/15% upside into late spring 2014, before the first opportunity of a significant pull back of 17/22%, down to the sp'1650/1550 zone.



With continued QE from the US - and other world, central banks, US and world equity indexes look strong, and set for further upside for another 4-6 months.

At some point we're going to see a major multi-month drop - probably on the scale of summer/autumn 2011. However, let me be clear...the broader multi-year top, does not look viable until late 2015/early 2016. We could still be a good two, even  three years before the next major collapse wave occurs.

For the moment..the market remains outright bullish, and holding at MARCON 7.

Friday 25 October 2013

US markets holding at MARCON 7

It was the third consecutive weekly gain for the US markets, with MARCON status for the sp'500 remaining at 7. On any balanced outlook, MARCON looks set to remain at 7 for the remainder of 2013, and probably at least until late spring 2014.


The sp'1800s look very likely in November. Even the 1900s look 'briefly' viable before year end, although if we reach those exuberant levels, we'll surely see some significant - and understandable, year end profit taking.

Whilst QE continues, this remains a powerfully bullish market, fuelled with huge amounts of Fed induced liquidity.


A drop to MARCON 6 looks unlikely until late spring 2014...and MARCON 5 not until early autumn. That is assuming the markets level out in the sp'1900/2000 range by March/April.

Considering QE-taper looks off the agenda until spring 2014, this market looks set to just 'broadly' keep on rising.

Saturday 19 October 2013

Spain moves to MARCON 7, Italy to follow

Along with the US, the world indexes are continuing to battle higher. Even the EU PIIGS of Spain and Italy are now pulling away from the lows of summer 2012. Spain has just moved to MARCON 7 - the first time since late 2007. Italy looks set to follow within the next few weeks.

*US sp'500..holding at MARCON 7

Generally, I will only detail MARCON for the US sp'500, but the recent breaks higher in Spain and Italy are very note worthy.

Spain, monthly

Italy, monthly


Suffice to say, the price action in both the above charts is very bullish, and as I noted last weekend, the outlook into spring 2014 looks increasingly clear.

With the US debt ceiling out of the way, I have to think both US and world equities are seeing another multi-month up wave that will endure into next year.

Tuesday 15 October 2013

New page, 1998-2004 MARCON

I have added a major new page (see left side column) which details how MARCON would have been defined in the late 1990s, across the tech boom peak, and then down to the 2002 lows.

Holding at MARCON 7 into 2014 ?

As things are, with the debt ceiling can due to be kicked into November, and from there, another kick into summer/autumn 2014, it looks like we'll be holding at MARCON 7 at least into spring 2014. At that point, we might even be trading in the sp'2000s. No doubt, that is a disturbing thought for most of the remaining doomer bears out there.

Ohh, and here is a 20yr chart covering MARCON....and the three giant bubbles.

sp'monthly9b - MARCON, 20yr

*as ever, comments are most welcome.

Saturday 12 October 2013

Welcome to MARCON

US equities have rallied for four and a half years, and the sp'666 low is looking a bizarrely long way down. For the months, but more so, the coming few years, the MARCON status level will be here to offer a very simple summary of the Market Condition of US equities.

So..lets begin.. :)



Especially to all my regular readers out there, hello, and welcome to another new page of the Permabear Doomster world!

I have been thinking about adding something like this for a very long time, even before I started the original PD' page some 18 months ago.

So...we start at MARCON 7. What does that even mean though? 

Go have a read!

I have already added some extensive notes on the criteria/philosophy of MARCON. These are provisional, and I will certainly continue to add further background/details to this blog/site. So, keep an eye on the 'Pages' block on the left side.

As ever, I am open to ideas from any of you out there, but I think I will at least 'broadly' stick to the criteria I have chosen.

At the very least, maybe MARCON will provoke a few thoughts and ideas about the next bear market...whenever that might eventually begin.