1998-2004 MARCON


In forming MARCON, I was also interested in how the 3 pairs of criteria would have reacted from the late 1990s to the early part of 2004. The era was the 'tech boom', with the sp'500 rising from the low 500s in 1995, to the 1500s in 2000, only to be cut in half, to the high 700s in mid 2002.

Lets have a look at the 1998-2004 period, and see how MARCON would have been labelled, in each of the monthly, weekly, and daily cycles.

Monthly cycle

Weekly cycle

Daily cycle

Key issues

-the monthly cycles held largely bullish until May 2001, at which point MARCON was then able to reflect short/mid term trading signals.
-MARCON'1 was hit a considerable number of times, with three distinct periods. one period of MARCON 2/1, lasting from April-July 2002.
-MARCON'1 was briefly hit in late Jan'03, through to mid Feb, at which point the weekly charts turned positive.
-the bounces largely held under the monthly10MA until the recovery began in Mar'2003.
-the bigger monthly cycle took over again in May 2003, with MARCON 6.
-it was not until Jan'2004 that the market fully recovered to MARCON 7.


It should be clear from the 3 charts that MARCON does not capture the initial warning signs of a major bear market wave. However, once the monthly criteria go negative, that turn/signal can be a powerful sign.

Page last update – 23/5/2016