In forming MARCON, I was especially
interested in how the 3 pairs of criteria would have reacted from the
Oct' 2007 high to the latter part of 2009.
Lets have a look at the 2007-09 period,
and how MARCON would have been labelled, in each of the monthly,
weekly, and daily cycles.
Monthly cycle
Weekly cycle
Daily cycle
Key issues
-the monthly cycles held largely
bullish until July 2008, at which point MARCON was then able to
reflect short/mid term trading signals.
-MARCON'1 was hit a considerable number
of times in the collapse wave of 2008/09, with one period lasting
almost two full months.
-MARCON'1 was very briefly hit in late
Feb/early March 2009, at which point the weekly charts turned
positive.
-the bigger monthly cycle took over
again in August 2009 (sp'978-1039) with MARCON 6.
-it was not until Oct'2010
(sp'1131/1196) that the market fully recovered to MARCON 7.
It should be clear from the 3 charts that MARCON does not capture the initial warning signs of a major bear market wave. However, once the monthly criteria go negative, that turn/signal can be a powerful sign.
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Page last update – 23/5/2016
