A bullish 2023

 

 

Summary 

The SPX saw a net December gain of +202pts (4.4%) to 4769, another monthly settlement above the key 10MA (4382), as the m/t trend remains bullish. Net 2023 gain of 930.33pts (24.2%).

Momentum ticked upward for a second month, settling moderately positive. S/t bullish in early January 2024. M/t bullish from the Oct'2022 low. The latter arguably only changes if a monthly settlement back under the key 10MA, which will be in the low/mid 4400s in January.

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A very bullish November

Summary 

The SPX saw a net November gain of +374pts (8.9%) to 4567. November saw a monthly settlement back above the key 10MA (4302), as the m/t trend has turned bullish.

Momentum ticked back upward, settling marginally positive. S/t bearish, if only a week or two. More broadly, bullish into mid January.

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Momentum briefly negative

Summary 

The SPX saw a net October decline of -94pts (2.2%) to 4193. October saw a monthly settlement back under the key 10MA (4253), as the m/t trend has turned bearish.

Momentum ticked lower for a second month, and briefly turned negative on Friday Oct'27th. Momentum will turn negative as of Nov'1st, should be increasingly negative into 2024, and be a restraint on ALL bounces.

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Rolling over

 

Summary 

The SPX saw a net September decline of -219pts (4.9%) to 4288. Momentum has rolled over, and will be prone to turning negative in mid/late October, or as of Nov'1st.

The August candle - a hanging man, played out.

Things turn 'real interesting' for the equity bears, with a monthly settlement back under the key 10MA, currently 4217, which is near the daily 200MA (4199).
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Mid term ceiling?

 

Summary 

The SPX saw a net August decline of -81pts (1.8%) to 4507. Momentum ticked upward for an eleventh consecutive month, having turned positive at the July 3rd open.

The August candle is a hanging man, which bodes problematic for September.

Things only turn interesting again for the equity bears with a monthly settlement back under the key 10MA, currently 4197, which is near the daily 200MA (4157).
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Powering upward

 

Summary 

The SPX saw a net July gain of +138pts (3.1%) to 4588, settling a clear 10% above the 10MA (4133). Momentum ticked upward for an tenth consecutive month, having turned positive at the July 3rd open.

Whilst the macro and geo-political situations continue to deteriorate, the market doesn't care, partly on the notions of cooling inflation, no recession, and that the Fed will eventually cut rates and spool up the printers.

Things only turn interesting again for the equity bears with a monthly settlement back under 4K. Bulls could seek the upper bollinger, currently in the 4700s, as seem realistic by around Labor day.
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Powering upward

 

Summary 

The SPX saw a net June gain of +270pts (6.5%) to 4450, settling a clear 10% above the 10MA (4033). Momentum ticked upward for an ninth consecutive month, and is due to turn positive at the Monday July 3rd open.

Whilst the macro and geo-political situations continue to deteriorate, the market doesn't care, partly on the notions of cooling inflation, no recession, and that the Fed will eventually cut rates and spool up the printers.

Things only turn interesting again for the equity bears with a monthly settlement back under 4K. Bulls could seek the upper bollinger, currently in the 4700s, as seem realistic by around Labor day.
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To hold the line?

 

 

Summary 

The SPX saw a net May gain of +10pts (0.25%) to 4179, settling above the 10MA (3983). Momentum ticked upward for an eighth consecutive month, if remaining on the negative side at -25.945. Indeed, I would note the key zero threshold. A failure to keep pushing upward would be especially... problematic.

Whilst the macro and geo-political situations continue to deteriorate, the market doesn't care, partly on the notion the Fed will eventually cut rates and spool up the printers.

Things only turn interesting again for the equity bears with a (to be decisive) break under 3950. Bulls could seek the 4300s.
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Battling upward

 

 

Summary 

The SPX saw a net April gain of +60pts (1.5%) to 4169, settling above the 10MA (3978). Momentum ticked upward for a seventh consecutive month, if remaining on the negative side. 

Whilst the macro and geo-political situations continue to deteriorate, the market currently doesn't care. Things only turn interesting again for the equity bears with a break under 4000. Bulls can seek the 4200s, but it won't be easy to hold them.
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A bullish March

 

Summary 

The SPX saw a net March gain of +139pts (3.5%) to 4109, settling above the 10MA (3940). Momentum ticked upward for a sixth consecutive month, but remains on the negative side. 

I remain dismissive of renewed mainstream bullish chatter, as the macro and geo-political situations continue to deteriorate. Things turn interesting again for the equity bears with a break under the recent low of 3808. 
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A bearish February

Summary 

The SPX saw a net February decline of -106pts (2.6%) to 3970, holding above the 10MA (3942). Momentum ticked upward for a fifth consecutive month, but remains on the negative side. 

I remain skeptical of mainstream bullish chatter, as the macro and geo-political situations continue to deteriorate. Things turn interesting again for the equity bears if March settles under the monthly 10MA and the daily 200MA... <3900 would be decisive. 
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A bullish January

Summary 

The SPX saw a net January gain of +237pts (6.2%) to 4076, notably back above the 10MA (3958). Momentum ticked upward for a fourth consecutive month, but remains on the negative side. 

Whilst the January settlement is a bullish one, I'm skeptical, as the macro and geo-political situation continues to deteriorate. Things turn interesting again for the equity bears if February settles <3900.
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