Friday 30 September 2016

The bullish September settlement

With equities climbing into the monthly/Q3 close, price momentum on the giant monthly cycle turned positive. The September settlement was the most bullish since Feb'2015.



September was the first monthly settlement with the MACD (blue bar histogram) in positive territory since Feb'2015. Its pretty significant, and confirms the underlying market upside seen since the Jan/Feb' lows.

In theory, the market could battle all the way into spring 2017.

First soft target is the upper bollinger, which in early Oct' will be somewhere around sp'2210.

Things only turn bearish with sustained price action below the monthly 10MA, which is currently @ 2075.

Thursday 29 September 2016

DB spooking the market lower

With DB spooking the US equity market, resulting in broad net daily declines, price momentum on the giant monthly cycle has turned back to fractionally negative.



With one trading day left of the month, underlying price momentum is back to fractionally negative.

As ever, the monthly close will be important, although having broadly climbed since the Jan/Feb' lows, its not absolutely necessary for the equity bulls to achieve a particularly bullish Sept'.

Clearly though, if Oct' and Nov' start to show increasing weakness... then things get interesting, as a failure at the MACD zero threshold can be the most bearish scenario.

Tuesday 27 September 2016

Back to 7... again

With just a moderate net daily gain, we're back to outright bullish for the sp'500. Now its a case of where the month will settle.



Little to add.

Lets just see if we the market can manage a Sept' close at 7.

Monday 26 September 2016

A little cooling

With equities starting the week with broad declines... price momentum on the giant monthly cycle has turned back to fractionally negative.



Little to add.

As ever, the monthly close will be important. It would be useful to the equity bulls to see the month settle at least above sp'2170, which would likely achieve a status of MARCON 7. Indeed, its notable that the market hasn't achieved an outright bullish close since Feb' 2015.

Wednesday 21 September 2016

With no rate hike, back to 7

With the Fed still refraining from raising int' rates from the current target range of 0.25-0.50%, US equities have resumed higher. The sp'2200s remain due, not least with global monthly QE of around $200bn, and continuing share buybacks.



Suffice to note... we're back to 100% bullish, as the fed continue to hold off from raising rates.

Friday 9 September 2016

Moody market

With the market finally breaking significantly lower after two months of micro chop, the monthly price momentum has ticked back to negative.



Suffice to add.... with a series of breaks of multiple support, the monthly cycles have ticked back to negative.

As ever, the monthly close will be important, and that will unquestionably be highly dependent on whether the Fed hike rates.. and how the market will react to whatever decision they make.

For the moment though... the US, and almost all other world markets are still leaning to the upside.

Thursday 1 September 2016

...and back to full bullish

With the start of a new month, underlying price momentum has continued to tick higher. The US - along with most other world markets, are looking rather comfortable.



Suffice to add.... we're back to 100% bullish.

To me, things only turn bearish with any sustained price action under the key 10MA.. which is now in the sp'2070s.

A year end close in the 2300s looks increasingly probable, not least if the bears can't manage to break back under the breakout level of 2134.