Sunday 23 March 2014

The upward trend continues

With continuing QE (although reducing) from the Fed, US equities continue their upward trend from the Oct'2011 low of sp'1074. The issue for this year is how will the Fed react if the market gets upset, falling 15/20%? Will QE be raised, spurring a new hyper-ramp to the sp'2000s, and beyond?


sp'monthly8 - MARCON status


So, the market is holding at MARCON 7, and looks unlikely to drop to 6 until at least May. I do not expect MARCON 5 to be hit this year, even if the market drops to the best 'bear case' target zone of sp'1625/1575 this summer.

An update on the ongoing Fed QE.

sp'monthly8 - QE periods

My best guess for this year is the market becomes increasingly weak - not least due to geo-political rumblings, and we fall to the low 1600s..perhaps even (briefly) the 1500s.

I've little doubt the mainstream will get real upset at such a fall, with immense pressure on the Fed to halt taper, and actually increase QE.

Based on their past actions, I'd have to guess the Fed will indeed respond with increased QE, from a low of $35/25bn to $50/60bn a month. That would likely be more than enough to inspire a new multi-month up wave in equities.

I continue to hold to an outlook of broad upside into late 2015/early 2016. At that point, we'll very likely be trading in the sp' outlined in the following...


The notion of sp'2500..or higher, probably sounds like 'crazy talk' to many, but then, so was talk of sp'1500s or higher, back in late 2011. All traders - not least the equity doomer bears, would do well to keep an open mind this year.