Tuesday 21 October 2014

Back to 7 with a bounce

With the sp' climbing from 1820 to the 1940s across just five trading days, the bigger monthly cycle is back to outright bullish. However, this is not entirely unexpected, and even if the bulls can hold the mid 1900s... November will turn back to MARCON 6.



*it is notable that despite the current bounce, the Dow, R2K, and NYSE Comp', remain MARCON 6

Suffice to say, a bounce from the low sp'1800s into the 1900s was not unexpected, and seeing the monthly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle turn back positive was neither surprising.

Barring a sustained move back above 1970 or so.... the monthly cycle for the sp'500 will turn negative again at the start of November.

Friday 10 October 2014

Major equity down wave underway

The US equity market appears to have hit a wall at sp'2019... and having now fallen to sp'1906, we've seen a rather important bearish monthly MACD cross. MARCON status is lowered to 6, for the first time since January 2012.



With the extra few points lower into the Friday close, the sp'500 saw a bearish MACD cross, and went negative (blue bar histogram) cycle on the giant monthly cycle.

... MARCON 6... for the first time since January 2012.

It is notable that the R2K turned MARCON 6 in July.
The Dow turned MARCON 6 at the Monday open of this past week.

No doubt, the sp'500 will likely bounce in the latter half of October, and MARCON status will likely have to be changed back to 7.. but still.... today was a key warning.

Market appears headed for sp'1750. If analogous to the summer 2011 retracement, then target would be 1650.