Friday 12 May 2017

US equities continue to climb

US equity indexes continue to periodically break new historic highs, lead by the Nasdaq. The mid term upward trends - from early 2016, remain comfortably intact.



The current wave that began in Feb'2016 from sp'1810 continues, and shows little sign of concluding.

It could be argued the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is on the high side - which it is, but that could remain the case for a long time to come. Even if a rollover began in May/June, we wouldn't see a bearish cross/negative cycle until at least Sept/Oct.

Key 'break signs...

-Monthly 10MA, currently at 2268, but rising by 20/25pts a month.
-Any break under the Feb'2017 low of 2363.

Best guess: further upside, at least into Sept/Oct. If by end Oct' any retrace has not yet broken core rising trend, the market could be expected to continue powering upward into spring 2018.

Fundamentally, earnings and econ-data continue to come in 'reasonable'. There is simply no sign of a US recession any time soon.

Many other world equity markets are even more bullish than the US, with multi-decade breakouts. Based on price structure, many have 'basic upside' of 35/45% before a realistic threat of maxing out. In theory, that should equate to 25% in the US.... to sp'3k.

yours... trying to keep things in perspective.