Friday 20 May 2016

Still leaning bearish

Equity price action remains broadly stuck since US indexes maxed out across late 2014-summer 2015. Underlying price momentum continues to slightly favour the equity bears, as the equity bulls are unable to find a valid excuse to buy into the sp'2100s.


sp'monthly7 - Ichimoku


Equity price since mid April has been broadly similar to that seen last Nov/Dec' 2015.

For now, price action is pretty subdued, with the sp'500 having cooled from 2111 to 2025. Near term.. there is high threat of 2000/1990s... or a slightly more dynamic H/S suggestive target of the 1970/60s.

Those are all relatively minor moves though.

The bigger weekly cycles are suggestive of a more significant break lower in late May, with broader weakness across June. The fact there is a rather key BREXIT vote (June 23rd) would likely give the market an excuse to sell lower... further pressured by seasonal factors.

re: monthly7.  It is notable that across this coming June, the upper part of the cloud (Green) will be around 1660.

Unless equity bears can pierce the cloud - as happened in July 2008, even if the market is seriously rattled this summer, there is very high probability that the market will powerfully rebound, with new historic highs (at least in the leading indexes - sp'500, Dow, Nasdaq) by end year/early 2017.

Holding at MARCON 6.