Wednesday, 12 October 2016

A little shaky in October

With US equities trading back to the sp'2120s - with VIX 16s, price momentum on the giant monthly cycle has cooled a little. It will be important for the equity bulls to achieve renewed upside.



Suffice to add... underlying MACD cycle is back to moderately negative.... aka.. MARCON 6.

A failure to keep pushing higher - at the zero threshold, would be especially bearish.

Lets see how the month settles.

Friday, 30 September 2016

The bullish September settlement

With equities climbing into the monthly/Q3 close, price momentum on the giant monthly cycle turned positive. The September settlement was the most bullish since Feb'2015.



September was the first monthly settlement with the MACD (blue bar histogram) in positive territory since Feb'2015. Its pretty significant, and confirms the underlying market upside seen since the Jan/Feb' lows.

In theory, the market could battle all the way into spring 2017.

First soft target is the upper bollinger, which in early Oct' will be somewhere around sp'2210.

Things only turn bearish with sustained price action below the monthly 10MA, which is currently @ 2075.

Thursday, 29 September 2016

DB spooking the market lower

With DB spooking the US equity market, resulting in broad net daily declines, price momentum on the giant monthly cycle has turned back to fractionally negative.



With one trading day left of the month, underlying price momentum is back to fractionally negative.

As ever, the monthly close will be important, although having broadly climbed since the Jan/Feb' lows, its not absolutely necessary for the equity bulls to achieve a particularly bullish Sept'.

Clearly though, if Oct' and Nov' start to show increasing weakness... then things get interesting, as a failure at the MACD zero threshold can be the most bearish scenario.

Tuesday, 27 September 2016

Back to 7... again

With just a moderate net daily gain, we're back to outright bullish for the sp'500. Now its a case of where the month will settle.



Little to add.

Lets just see if we the market can manage a Sept' close at 7.