Saturday, 20 June 2020

Not yet normal service

May saw a bullish monthly settlement back above the monthly 10MA, yet monthly momentum remains distinctly negative.






Note the blue MACD histogram. At the current rate, momentum might turn positive within August. A failure to keep recovering upward would be problematic.

More problematic would be a June settlement back under psy'3K, which would also be below the 200dma, and the monthly 10MA.

Tuesday, 31 March 2020

March confirmed February

The SPX saw a net March decline of -369pts (12.5%) to 2584.





Summary

February saw a hyper bearish engulfing candle, and that was fully confirmed, with the SPX imploding to 2191. Despite a recovery to 2641, and settling at 2584, monthly momentum is accelerating to the downward side.

At the current rate, MARCON 5 will occur June/July.
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*I'm often overloaded, and this MARCON page has been one of the last things on my to-do list.

Saturday, 9 November 2019

Pushing upward




spx, m9 (linear scale)



Summary

Suffice to note, monthly price momentum turned positive in September, and looks set to carry through into early 2020.

Thursday, 29 November 2018

Leaning weak

October saw the sp'500 settle under the key 10MA for the first time since Feb'2016. Monthly price momentum has turned negative, and increasingly favoured the bears in November.




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*An overly late update....



Suffice to add, with the macd (blue bar histogram) turning negative in October, we're at MARCON 6. For 5 or lower, we need to see the black macd line cross below the zero threshold. That looks possible no earlier than mid 2019.