Monday, 26 September 2016

A little cooling

With equities starting the week with broad declines... price momentum on the giant monthly cycle has turned back to fractionally negative.



sp'monthly9



Summary

Little to add.

As ever, the monthly close will be important. It would be useful to the equity bulls to see the month settle at least above sp'2170, which would likely achieve a status of MARCON 7. Indeed, its notable that the market hasn't achieved an outright bullish close since Feb' 2015.

Wednesday, 21 September 2016

With no rate hike, back to 7

With the Fed still refraining from raising int' rates from the current target range of 0.25-0.50%, US equities have resumed higher. The sp'2200s remain due, not least with global monthly QE of around $200bn, and continuing share buybacks.



sp'monthly9



Summary

Suffice to note... we're back to 100% bullish, as the fed continue to hold off from raising rates.

Friday, 9 September 2016

Moody market

With the market finally breaking significantly lower after two months of micro chop, the monthly price momentum has ticked back to negative.




sp'monthly9



Summary

Suffice to add.... with a series of breaks of multiple support, the monthly cycles have ticked back to negative.

As ever, the monthly close will be important, and that will unquestionably be highly dependent on whether the Fed hike rates.. and how the market will react to whatever decision they make.

For the moment though... the US, and almost all other world markets are still leaning to the upside.

Thursday, 1 September 2016

...and back to full bullish

With the start of a new month, underlying price momentum has continued to tick higher. The US - along with most other world markets, are looking rather comfortable.




sp'monthly9



Summary

Suffice to add.... we're back to 100% bullish.

To me, things only turn bearish with any sustained price action under the key 10MA.. which is now in the sp'2070s.

A year end close in the 2300s looks increasingly probable, not least if the bears can't manage to break back under the breakout level of 2134.