Thursday, 29 November 2018

Leaning weak

October saw the sp'500 settle under the key 10MA for the first time since Feb'2016. Monthly price momentum has turned negative, and increasingly favoured the bears in November.

*An overly late update....

Suffice to add, with the macd (blue bar histogram) turning negative in October, we're at MARCON 6. For 5 or lower, we need to see the black macd line cross below the zero threshold. That looks possible no earlier than mid 2019.

Friday, 12 May 2017

US equities continue to climb

US equity indexes continue to periodically break new historic highs, lead by the Nasdaq. The mid term upward trends - from early 2016, remain comfortably intact.



The current wave that began in Feb'2016 from sp'1810 continues, and shows little sign of concluding.

It could be argued the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is on the high side - which it is, but that could remain the case for a long time to come. Even if a rollover began in May/June, we wouldn't see a bearish cross/negative cycle until at least Sept/Oct.

Key 'break signs...

-Monthly 10MA, currently at 2268, but rising by 20/25pts a month.
-Any break under the Feb'2017 low of 2363.

Best guess: further upside, at least into Sept/Oct. If by end Oct' any retrace has not yet broken core rising trend, the market could be expected to continue powering upward into spring 2018.

Fundamentally, earnings and econ-data continue to come in 'reasonable'. There is simply no sign of a US recession any time soon.

Many other world equity markets are even more bullish than the US, with multi-decade breakouts. Based on price structure, many have 'basic upside' of 35/45% before a realistic threat of maxing out. In theory, that should equate to 25% in the US.... to sp'3k.

yours... trying to keep things in perspective.

Tuesday, 31 January 2017

Equities cruising higher

January saw a new historic high of sp'2300, as underlying price momentum continues to lean increasingly bullish. There is simply no sign of the current wave that began in Feb'2016 ending.



January saw a third consecutive net monthly gain, as - contrary to what some wish to believe, the post election rally continues.

For now, there is zero reason to be bearish unless a monthly close under the key 10MA, which will soon be in the 2200s.

It is entirely possible - if not probable, that we'll see the 2400s by May/June.

sp'monthly7 - ichimoku

Its interesting to note that by year end, the top of the cloud will be around sp'1950. Those calling for deflationary collapse really have no justification until a break inside the cloud.

Monday, 21 November 2016

New historic highs

With a quartet of new index historic highs - including sp'500 @ 2198, underlying price momentum on the giant monthly cycle has turned back to outright bullish.



Little to add, as the main market is now regularly breaking new historic highs in 4 of 6 indexes. The NYSE comp' and Transports look set to follow in early 2017.

Short term, the upper bollinger is offering the 2230s, with the 2250s seemingly viable by year end. The 2300s look out of range until early 2017.