Tuesday, 31 March 2020

March confirmed February

The SPX saw a net March decline of -369pts (12.5%) to 2584.





Summary

February saw a hyper bearish engulfing candle, and that was fully confirmed, with the SPX imploding to 2191. Despite a recovery to 2641, and settling at 2584, monthly momentum is accelerating to the downward side.

At the current rate, MARCON 5 will occur June/July.
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*I'm often overloaded, and this MARCON page has been one of the last things on my to-do list.

Saturday, 9 November 2019

Pushing upward




spx, m9 (linear scale)



Summary

Suffice to note, monthly price momentum turned positive in September, and looks set to carry through into early 2020.

Thursday, 29 November 2018

Leaning weak

October saw the sp'500 settle under the key 10MA for the first time since Feb'2016. Monthly price momentum has turned negative, and increasingly favoured the bears in November.




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*An overly late update....



Suffice to add, with the macd (blue bar histogram) turning negative in October, we're at MARCON 6. For 5 or lower, we need to see the black macd line cross below the zero threshold. That looks possible no earlier than mid 2019.

Friday, 12 May 2017

US equities continue to climb

US equity indexes continue to periodically break new historic highs, lead by the Nasdaq. The mid term upward trends - from early 2016, remain comfortably intact.



spmonthly9



Summary

The current wave that began in Feb'2016 from sp'1810 continues, and shows little sign of concluding.

It could be argued the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is on the high side - which it is, but that could remain the case for a long time to come. Even if a rollover began in May/June, we wouldn't see a bearish cross/negative cycle until at least Sept/Oct.

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Key 'break signs...

-Monthly 10MA, currently at 2268, but rising by 20/25pts a month.
-Any break under the Feb'2017 low of 2363.

Best guess: further upside, at least into Sept/Oct. If by end Oct' any retrace has not yet broken core rising trend, the market could be expected to continue powering upward into spring 2018.

Fundamentally, earnings and econ-data continue to come in 'reasonable'. There is simply no sign of a US recession any time soon.

Many other world equity markets are even more bullish than the US, with multi-decade breakouts. Based on price structure, many have 'basic upside' of 35/45% before a realistic threat of maxing out. In theory, that should equate to 25% in the US.... to sp'3k.

yours... trying to keep things in perspective.