Tuesday 1 December 2015

Price momentum swinging back toward the bulls

October saw hyper gains for US equities, then a moderate retrace to form a higher low in November to sp'2019. December has already started on a significantly positive note, back into the 2100s. Underlying price momentum continues to swing back toward the equity bulls.



Eyes on the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, which is now ticking higher for the third consecutive month.

At the current rate, the sp'500 will see a bullish MACD cross in late Feb/early March.

If we do see MARCON turn back to 7 in spring 2016, it then has to be asked, will 2016 finally see the hyper-upside that I had originally expected to see from summer 2015 onward?

In my view.. it will be necessary to see the Fed regularly raise rates - at least once a quarter, and at the same time, GDP/jobs data will need to remain at least 'reasonable'.

For the moment... holding at MARCON 6.