Momentum still weakening

Despite a significant net daily gain of 1.1% into the weekly close, the new month has seen underlying momentum swing a little further to the downside. However, it would seem rather than lower prices, the market is simply in a period of consolidating across time.

sp'monthly9

Summary

It is indeed somewhat ironic that despite the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle at levels not seen since Dec' 2011, the actual index levels remain at/close to historic highs.

It will likely require upside to the sp'2150/75 zone.. before we see a bullish cross on the monthly cycle... and that looks unlikely in May... a seasonally weak month.

With the sp' @ 2108, holding at MARCON 6.

Still holding a bearish cross

Despite new historic highs, the monthly MACD cross is holding on a number of indexes.. including the sp'500. However, equity bears face further problems as the USD looks in the process of retracing lower into June. A weaker US Dollar certainly bodes in favour of continued upside.

sp'monthly9

Summary

Little to add.

The broader US equity market remains pretty strong, as also reflected in most EU/Asia markets.
-

So.. .holding at MARCON 6, but if sp'2130/40s into early May.. the status will turn back to an outright bullish 7.

March settles moderately bearish

With weakness into the Tuesday close, March settled with a bearish MACD cross for the sp'500 (and most other US indexes). Near term momentum now slightly favours the equity bears. First downside target is the 200dma in the sp'2010s, and then weekly support in the mid 1900s.

sp'monthly9

Summary

Little to add.

It has been a mixed opening quarter to 2015.

January was bearish.. and settled at MARCON 6, only to see February with relative hyper-gains.. hitting new historic highs on most indexes..back  to MARCON 7.

March has flipped lower.. and we have a moderately bearish MACD cross on most indexes... back to MARCON 6.

All things considered.. the broader trend remains UP.. but there remains a viable intermediate down wave.

Best 'doomer bear' case for the summer is Dow 15k.. along with sp'1700s. For now though, those remain mere 'wistful hopes', as there are a truckload of support levels all the way into the mid sp'1900s.