Back to outright bullish

We're barely half way into February, and already holding powerful net monthly gains of 93pts (4.7%) @ sp'2088. The monthly MACD cycle has negated the bearish cross of late January, and has now turned positive cycle.

sp'monthly

Summary

What can be said? Market appears back in 100% 'everything is fine' mood, and we now have bullish engulfing candles on most of the indexes.

Without question.. if we close the month >sp'2088, it'll bode for continued upside across the spring.. if not the year.

For the equity bears... it would seem that the late January weakness was just another cruel tease.

Downside momentum building

A new month has begun with further dynamic swings in the US equity indexes. With January closing with a bearish MACD cross... February is seeing underlying price momentum increasingly swinging in favour of the equity bears.

sp'monthly'9

Summary

Little to add.

What is important... unlike October.. the bears finally managed a bearish monthly close for January.

If Feb' can close at least a little lower, it'd make for the third consecutive monthly decline... and would be highly suggestive of a much bigger move to the low sp'1700s.

First things first though... lets see if the bears can hit 1920/00 within the next 9 trading days. It won't be easy, but then... when the 200dma was lost in early October... things unravelled rather fast.

January ends on a bearish note

After a number of brief bearish teases since last October, the equity bears have finally achieved the first bearish monthly close on the sp'500 since Jan'2012, resulting in MARCON 6. Outlook in the immediate term is now bearish, with the door opening to the sp'1920/00 zone by mid February.

sp'monthly9 - MARCON status

Summary

It has been THREE full years of waiting.. and finally, the equity bears have achieved a bearish monthly cross on the sp'500.

Certainly, the primary up trend is STILL intact, but the January close was particularly weak.

Next support is the double micro floor of 1988.... after that... 1973/75 - where the 200dma is lurking. Any daily closes under there.. will open up the 1920/00 zone by mid February. The latter would likely equate to VIX in the mid/upper 30s.