Momentum turns negative

SPX m9

 

Summary

Wed' Feb'23rd has seen momentum turn negative. Whilst it might turn back to positive for a few days, it will be sustainably negative across March.

Alarm bells. 

Momentum is weakening

sp'monthly9

 

Summary

Whilst the SPX settled above the monthly 10MA, momentum continues to weaken, and threatens to turn negative late Feb'/March. Considering the latter has already happened for the Nasdaq comp' and R2K, the SPX could be expected to follow.

Positive end to a positive year

 

 
Summary

The SPX ended the year on a positive note, settling net higher for December by +199pts (4.4%) to 4766, having printed a new historic high of 4808. The December candle is bullish engulfing and leans distinctly s/t bullish. 

For the year, the SPX saw a net gain of 1010.11pts (26.9%). The m/t bullish trend could be expected to continue into (at least) April/May.

I would note the key 10MA at 4381, which will jump/adjust to the mid 4400s as of the January 3rd open. Monthly price momentum ticked subtly upward in December, and remains on the high side. Even if momentum cools back, it should remain net positive until at least April/May.

Holding at MARCON 7.