A big move remains due

Despite another hyper-ramp from sp'1991 to 2108, it likely marks another failure for the equity bulls to break above the May 2015 high of 2134. The bigger monthly charts are clear, having traded within a narrow range for over a year... a big move remains due.

sp'monthly9

sp'monthly7

Summary

Note the narrow range bollinger bands. As many in the mainstream recognise, a big breakout is due...one way or another.
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re: Ichimoku. Things only get interesting for the deflationary doomer bears, on a pierce into the green cloud.. which is around sp'1690. By October, that will have risen to around 1770.

A break into the cloud will offer a washout to at least the 1625/1575 zone.

Any monthly close - in the remainder of 2016, under sp'1500, would bode in favour of the 'crazy talk' targets... sp'600/500 in 2017/18. However, I don't see that as viable, as the central banks would massively intervene.

Still leaning bearish

Equity price action remains broadly stuck since US indexes maxed out across late 2014-summer 2015. Underlying price momentum continues to slightly favour the equity bears, as the equity bulls are unable to find a valid excuse to buy into the sp'2100s.

sp'monthly9

sp'monthly7 - Ichimoku

Summary

Equity price since mid April has been broadly similar to that seen last Nov/Dec' 2015.

For now, price action is pretty subdued, with the sp'500 having cooled from 2111 to 2025. Near term.. there is high threat of 2000/1990s... or a slightly more dynamic H/S suggestive target of the 1970/60s.

Those are all relatively minor moves though.

The bigger weekly cycles are suggestive of a more significant break lower in late May, with broader weakness across June. The fact there is a rather key BREXIT vote (June 23rd) would likely give the market an excuse to sell lower... further pressured by seasonal factors.
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re: monthly7.  It is notable that across this coming June, the upper part of the cloud (Green) will be around 1660.

Unless equity bears can pierce the cloud - as happened in July 2008, even if the market is seriously rattled this summer, there is very high probability that the market will powerfully rebound, with new historic highs (at least in the leading indexes - sp'500, Dow, Nasdaq) by end year/early 2017.

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Holding at MARCON 6.

Remaining broadly bearish

Despite the sp'500 clawing from the Feb'11th low of 1810 to 2009, the giant monthly cycles remain outright bearish. Unless the equity bulls can attain a monthly close above the monthly 10MA (currently 2011), the broader bearish outlook for spring/summer 2016 remains on track

sp'monthly9

Summary

So... we're still at MARCON 6.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) is currently ticking higher, as the market has seen a considerable rally into March. Yet.. it is very probable that it is a classic bear market rally, with much lower levels this spring and into the summer.

At the current rate, with the MACD (black line) at 52.354, we won't see a move below the key zero threshold until late May/June.
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Ichimoku - an update

I thought I'd highlight the Ichimoku chart...

sp'monthly7

For those that like the 2007/09 pattern, equity bears should be battling to pierce the top of the green cloud.. which in April will be within the 1650/25 zone.

Any price action <1600 should sound major alarm bells.

An April/May monthly close inside the green cloud will open the door to a FULL retrace of the gains since 2011.. back to the 1100/1000 zone.
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Holding at MARCON 6