Remaining broadly bearish

Despite being net higher for October by 113pts (5.9%) at sp'2033, the monthly cycles remain outright bearish. Equity bears need to restrain the current rally to a monthly close no higher than the 10MA in the 2040s. Any monthly close in the 2050/60s will open the door to new historic highs into early 2016.

sp'monthly9

Summary

Without question things are now extremely borderline.

Based on past grand multi-year cycles, so long as the bears can hold the market for a monthly close under the monthly 10MA, things can be considered as still broadly bearish.

Indeed, the underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle remains deeply negative, and will very likely stay negative until January.. even if the market can climb into the sp'2100s.

*as ever.. it will be important to consider other indexes... along with other world markets.
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For the moment... holding at MARCON 6

Increasingly bearish

With a net monthly decline of -131pts (6.3%) at sp'1972, US equity indexes are increasingly bearish. Regardless of any continued bounce into mid September (even as high as the 2050/70 zone), there looks to be high probability that the Aug' low was not a key multi-month low.

sp'monthly9

Summary

Suffice to say, August settled with a very significant net decline of -131pts (6.3%) @ 1972, with an intra month low of 1867.

Price momentum continues to swing toward the equity bears at an accelerated rate. We've not seen price momentum this negative since June 2009.
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The next 3-5 weeks could prove to be even wilder than the latter half of August.
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Best case for the equity bears?

sp'weekly8

The low sp'1700s look viable in October, where they are multiple aspects of support.

Momentum still weakening

Despite remaining close to the May 20th historic high of sp'2134, underlying price momentum continues to weaken. A break under the giant 2K threshold looks due into the late summer.

sp'monthly9

Summary

Suffice to say, this is the longest MARCON'6 period since the intermediate correction of late 2011.

Ironically, unlike 2011, actual prices remain a mere 2-3% below the recent historic high.
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Best guess... increasing weakness from mid August-early October. From there... renewed upside.. with the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticking higher from October/November onward into 2016.