Momentum still weakening

Despite remaining close to the May 20th historic high of sp'2134, underlying price momentum continues to weaken. A break under the giant 2K threshold looks due into the late summer.

sp'monthly9

Summary

Suffice to say, this is the longest MARCON'6 period since the intermediate correction of late 2011.

Ironically, unlike 2011, actual prices remain a mere 2-3% below the recent historic high.
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Best guess... increasing weakness from mid August-early October. From there... renewed upside.. with the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticking higher from October/November onward into 2016.

Momentum continues to weaken

Despite a net monthly gain, along with a new historic high of 2134 for the sp'500 in May, underlying momentum is continuing to swing (if slowly) back toward the equity bears.

sp'monthly9

Summary

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) has started a new month by ticking lower again, and is now negative cycle for the fourth consecutive month.

Even if renewed strength to the sp'2160/80 zone in mid/late June, momentum will remain moderately negative, and certainly favours the equity bears.

A sig' retrace for US/world markets looks due this summer/early autumn.

From there, renewed upside into 2016.. and probably all the way into 2017 looks probable.

Momentum still weakening

Despite a significant net daily gain of 1.1% into the weekly close, the new month has seen underlying momentum swing a little further to the downside. However, it would seem rather than lower prices, the market is simply in a period of consolidating across time.

sp'monthly9

Summary

It is indeed somewhat ironic that despite the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle at levels not seen since Dec' 2011, the actual index levels remain at/close to historic highs.

It will likely require upside to the sp'2150/75 zone.. before we see a bullish cross on the monthly cycle... and that looks unlikely in May... a seasonally weak month.

With the sp' @ 2108, holding at MARCON 6.