Resuming lower

Summary 

The SPX saw a net December decline of -240pts (5.9%) to 3839, notably back under the 10MA (4004). Momentum subtly ticked upward for a third consecutive month, but remains on the very low side. 

With a decisive monthly/yearly settlement <4K, the US equity market is to be seen as back to m/t bearish. Equity bulls have nothing to tout unless the recent double top of 4100 is cleared, and that doesn't look realistic within H1 of 2023.
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Back above the 10MA

 

 

Summary 

The SPX saw a net November gain of +208pts (5.4%) to 4080. This was the first monthly settlement above the 10MA (4057) since March. Momentum ticked upward for a second month, but remains on the very low side. 

For confidence, the equity bulls need some sustained action >4100, whilst the bears have nothing to tout unless December/2022 settles back under 4K. 
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Still mid term broken

 

Summary 

The SPX saw a net October gain of +286pts (8.0%) to 3871. This was a seventh consecutive bearish monthly settlement under the 10MA (4101). Momentum ticked upward, but remains on the extremely low side. 

It should be clear, the market remains mid term broken. That would arguably only change with some sustained action >4100.
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Spiraling lower

 

Summary 

The SPX saw a net September decline of -369pts (9.3%) to 3585. This was a sixth consecutive bearish monthly settlement under the 10MA (4190). Momentum ticked lower, and is on the extremely low side.

Most notable is the stall from the key 10MA, where the daily 200MA was also lurking.
Q4 should broadly favour the equity bears to 3200/2900.
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A stall in August

 

 

Summary 

The SPX saw a net August decline of -175pts (4.2%) to 3955. This was a fifth consecutive bearish monthly settlement under the 10MA (4288). Momentum ticked lower, and is on the extremely low side.

Most notable is the stall from the key 10MA, where the daily 200MA was also lurking.
Sept' > early November should favour the equity bears to the 3200/2900 zone.
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Just a bounce

 

 

Summary 

The SPX saw a net July gain of +344pts (9.1%) to 4130. This was a fourth consecutive bearish monthly settlement under the 10MA (4353). Momentum is flat-lining on the extremely low side.
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Momentum is increasingly negative

 

 

Summary 

The SPX saw a net June decline gain of -346pts (8.4%) to 3785. This was a third consecutive bearish monthly settlement under the 10MA (4371). Momentum is increasingly negative, and should continue to weaken into the summer. 

Primary target is the lower monthly bollinger, currently at 3550, but that will adjust/jump to around 3600 as of July 1st.
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Momentum remains negative

 

 

Summary 

The SPX saw a net May gain of +0.2pts (0.01%) to 4132. This was a second consecutive bearish monthly settlement under the 10MA (4445). Momentum is increasingly negative, and should continue to weaken into the summer. 

Primary target is the lower monthly bollinger, currently at 3427, but that will adjust/jump to around 3500 as of June 1st.
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A severely bearish April

Summary 

The SPX saw a net April decline of -398pts (8.8%) to 4131. This was a decisive bearish monthly settlement back under the 10MA (4471). Momentum was increasingly negative, and should continue to weaken across the spring and into the summer. 

Primary target is the lower monthly bollinger, currently at 3308, but that will probably have risen to the 3500s within June. 

March settles negative

 

Summary 

The SPX saw a net March gain of +156pts (3.6%) to 4530. Whilst this was a bullish monthly settlement back above the 10MA, momentum still weakened, settling fractionally negative. In theory, momentum should continue to weaken across the spring and into the summer.

Sustainably negative

 

 

Summary

Suffice to note, monthly equity momentum in the SPX has turned back to negative, and should remain sustainably so into April.

Back to positive

 

Suffice to note, monthly momentum has turned back to positive. However, as of March 1st, it will be SUSTAINABLY negative... probably for at least 3-4 months. 

Momentum turns negative

SPX m9

 

Summary

Wed' Feb'23rd has seen momentum turn negative. Whilst it might turn back to positive for a few days, it will be sustainably negative across March.

Alarm bells. 

Momentum is weakening

sp'monthly9

 

Summary

Whilst the SPX settled above the monthly 10MA, momentum continues to weaken, and threatens to turn negative late Feb'/March. Considering the latter has already happened for the Nasdaq comp' and R2K, the SPX could be expected to follow.

Positive end to a positive year

 

 
Summary

The SPX ended the year on a positive note, settling net higher for December by +199pts (4.4%) to 4766, having printed a new historic high of 4808. The December candle is bullish engulfing and leans distinctly s/t bullish. 

For the year, the SPX saw a net gain of 1010.11pts (26.9%). The m/t bullish trend could be expected to continue into (at least) April/May.

I would note the key 10MA at 4381, which will jump/adjust to the mid 4400s as of the January 3rd open. Monthly price momentum ticked subtly upward in December, and remains on the high side. Even if momentum cools back, it should remain net positive until at least April/May.

Holding at MARCON 7.