Holding m/t bullish

 

sp'monthly9

 

Summary

The SPX broke a new historic high of 3588, but swung to 3209, and settling -137pts (3.9%) to 3363. The September candle leans to s/t bullish exhaustion. Primary downside target are the low 3100s, where the 200dma is lurking.

Considering the likely election outcome, and further stimulus, the m/t bullish trend could be expected to continue into early 2021. 

Normal service resumes

Mini update - Aug'30th 2020

Monthly momentum turned fractionally positive in July, and accelerated across August.
Momentum could be expected to remain positive into 2021, as the m/t trend is unquestionably bullish.

To deem the l/t trend bullish, I would need to see 18mths trading above the monthly 10MA, which would take us to Oct'2021.

Not yet normal service

May saw a bullish monthly settlement back above the monthly 10MA, yet monthly momentum remains distinctly negative.

Note the blue MACD histogram. At the current rate, momentum might turn positive within August. A failure to keep recovering upward would be problematic.

More problematic would be a June settlement back under psy'3K, which would also be below the 200dma, and the monthly 10MA.

March confirmed February

The SPX saw a net March decline of -369pts (12.5%) to 2584.

Summary

February saw a hyper bearish engulfing candle, and that was fully confirmed, with the SPX imploding to 2191. Despite a recovery to 2641, and settling at 2584, monthly momentum is accelerating to the downward side.

At the current rate, MARCON 5 will occur June/July.
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*I'm often overloaded, and this MARCON page has been one of the last things on my to-do list.