March settles moderately bearish

With weakness into the Tuesday close, March settled with a bearish MACD cross for the sp'500 (and most other US indexes). Near term momentum now slightly favours the equity bears. First downside target is the 200dma in the sp'2010s, and then weekly support in the mid 1900s.

sp'monthly9

Summary

Little to add.

It has been a mixed opening quarter to 2015.

January was bearish.. and settled at MARCON 6, only to see February with relative hyper-gains.. hitting new historic highs on most indexes..back  to MARCON 7.

March has flipped lower.. and we have a moderately bearish MACD cross on most indexes... back to MARCON 6.

All things considered.. the broader trend remains UP.. but there remains a viable intermediate down wave.

Best 'doomer bear' case for the summer is Dow 15k.. along with sp'1700s. For now though, those remain mere 'wistful hopes', as there are a truckload of support levels all the way into the mid sp'1900s.

.. and another bearish cross

With the failure to hold the retrace low of sp'2085... the monthly cycles have yet again seen a bearish MACD cross. Broader price action still doesn't particularly support the equity bears.. unless sustained trading under the giant sp'2k threshold.

sp'monthly9

Summary

Little to add.

Yet again.. another little down wave.. from sp'2114 to 2061.. and the monthly cycle has turned moderately bearish.

As ever.. how we close the month is far more important.

Back to bullish... again

With the market battling into the sp'2100s, the bigger monthly MACD cycle has again flipped bullish... offering a super bullish MARCON 7. With ECB QE, along with recent historic breakouts in the UK and China markets, there is little reason to expect any hope of a moderate correction until at least May/June.

sp'monthly9

Summary

Little to add.

March looks set to close at MARCON 7...  along with powerful net monthly gains for most US and world equity markets.

Broader trend somewhat twitchy

With just a minor daily decline of sp -10pts @ 2089, the monthly MACD cycle has again seen a bearish cross. However, the recent post FOMC gains look very solid, and market should be able to climb higher into end month.

sp'monthly'9

Summary

Little to add.

I do NOT see the market breaking below the 50dma of sp'2063. Right now, a March close in the sp'2100s looks probable... which would turn the monthly cycle back to bullish.

So.. MARCON 6.... but 7 looks due tomorrow... or next week.

Back to outright bullish

With US capital markets 'inspired' by the latest FOMC statement, equities soared back into the sp'2100s, which has resulted in the bigger monthly MACD cycle turning back to outright bullish. Outlook into April is bullish, and any hope of a bearish monthly close are now off the menu.

sp'monthly9

Summary

Suffice to add...  Mr Market seems very pleased with the current situation, and with the USD cooling from DXY 100 to the 97s, equities look set for new historic highs.

*it is notable that the upper bollinger on the monthly is offering 2170s in the immediate term.

A fair few are seeking sp'2300s by year end... and at the current rate of trend.. that would indeed be the natural target.

A bearish March close?

With continuing weakness to sp'2039 this week, the monthly MACD cycle for the sp'500 remains bearish. If the sp'500 can close March no higher than 2080, then it will bode for an intermediate bearish turn into the spring/summer.

sp'monthly9

Summary

Suffice to add... things are starting to get interesting again.

After the powerful February gains - with a new recent high of sp'2119, it had seemed the bears were toast until at least April/May... but recent weakness is causing some distinct technical damage.

If the sp'500 can take out the 200dma (2005/10 zone), next support is not until the 1950/25 zone. Clearly, that will take the better part of two weeks.. which would mean the bulls wouldn't have a hope of closing March net positive.

*ultimate 'best case' downside this late spring/summer is the lower monthly bollinger, which itself is rising each.. and every month.. currently @ 1654. By end year... core support will be pretty close to the giant 2k threshold.
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As ever... stay tuned!

Another tease to the equity bears

With the US equity market slipping from a new historic high of sp'2119, to the 2060s, the giant monthly cycle has once again seen a MACD bearish cross. However.. this is very likely just another cruel tease to the infamous 'doomer bears'.... with another wave higher due.

sp'monthly'9

Summary

Suffice to add... I don't think we'll see sustained trading under sp'2050 in the current wave. More likely.. we'll claw higher into end March.. and across April.

MARCON 6.... but set to close the month at 7.