Friday, 13 March 2015

A bearish March close?

With continuing weakness to sp'2039 this week, the monthly MACD cycle for the sp'500 remains bearish. If the sp'500 can close March no higher than 2080, then it will bode for an intermediate bearish turn into the spring/summer.



Suffice to add... things are starting to get interesting again.

After the powerful February gains - with a new recent high of sp'2119, it had seemed the bears were toast until at least April/May... but recent weakness is causing some distinct technical damage.

If the sp'500 can take out the 200dma (2005/10 zone), next support is not until the 1950/25 zone. Clearly, that will take the better part of two weeks.. which would mean the bulls wouldn't have a hope of closing March net positive.

*ultimate 'best case' downside this late spring/summer is the lower monthly bollinger, which itself is rising each.. and every month.. currently @ 1654. By end year... core support will be pretty close to the giant 2k threshold.

As ever... stay tuned!