Wednesday, 14 January 2015

US equities again flirting with a major turn

With the break back under the giant sp'2000 threshold, the monthly MACD cycle has given a bearish cross.. the first sign of a broader trend change. Yet... the same event happened in mid October, only to last a few days. A mere week ago... MARCON' 6 was hit... but held for mere hours.

sp'monthly9, 8yr


*with the market clawing into the Wednesday close, the monthly cycles negated the bearish cross from earlier today.

Suffice to say, the equity bears have been teased a fair few times since the autumn.

As ever.. its not so much the intra-month action.. but how we close the month.

Considering the ECB are set to announce QE - t-bond buying next Thursday, I would not expect the monthly cycle to remain negative (MARCON 6) at the close of January.

Holding at MARCON 7