Friday, 18 April 2014

US indexes back on the rise

The decline from sp'1897, appears to have found a floor of 1814. Once again, a multi-week decline never amounted to anything more than 'minor' declines. All the main US indexes look set to close April at MARCON 7. Equity bears have at least another 2 or 3 months to wait.



Suffice to say, equity bears were teased again, with a decline of 83pts (around 4.4%) across 8 trading days.

Yes, the monthly MACD (blue bar histogram) is continuing to tick lower, but prices are still broadly climbing. Until bears can attain a monthly close under the 10MA - currently @ 1779 (the low 1800s in May), there is no justification for any excitement.

So, we're Holding at MARCON 7, and right now, I'd guess we won't see 6 until at least June.

Sunday, 13 April 2014

UK FTSE falls to MARCON 6, DOW set to follow

The UK equity market has rolled over, and looks set for a decline of at least 10% to the big 6k level this spring/summer. The US Dow'30 looks set to early as next week.

UK, FTSE, monthly

USA, Dow, monthly


So..we have the shaky UK market already getting a bearish MACD cross on the big monthly chart, and thus...a lowered rating of MARCON 6 - the first time since Oct'2012. Downside to the low 6000s looks a pretty easy target, whether that is this spring..or the summer.

Dow set to break 16k

The Dow remains the weakest of the USA indexes (despite the recent declines in the R2K, Nasdaq), The Dow has not seen a negative MACD (green bar histogram) cycle since Dec'2012. As ever, how we close the month, we be all important.

On any cyclical basis, we're more than due at least a moderate multi-month down wave.