Tuesday, 31 December 2013

US equities hold MARCON 7 across 2013

US equities were extremely strong across 2013, with the sp' climbing from 1426 to 1848 - a gain of 422pts (29.6%).  There is simply zero sign of the current giant wave ending, and the market looks set to hold MARCON 6 or higher, until late 2015/early 2016.



...and the year comes to a close, with the market having held MARCON 7 across the entire year. Indeed, the market has held MARCON 7 since Feb'2012, and this is now the most powerful up trend since the late 1990s.

The outlook for 2014

My broader outlook is the following...


If the above scenario is generally correct, then we'll see a major wave lower in summer/autumn 2014, but that will only be an intermediate low. Whether you want to call it a 4, D, or whatever, I sure don't think the multi-year top is likely until late 2015/early 2016.

In terms of MARCON, even a 20% decline will likely only take us to MARCON 6.

Underlying monthly price momentum remains so high, it will take a good 9-12 months, from the moment a top if put in, along with a 20% correction, for underlying momentum to turn negative.

So..we close 2013...with the US market holding at MARCON 7