Friday, 25 October 2013

US markets holding at MARCON 7

It was the third consecutive weekly gain for the US markets, with MARCON status for the sp'500 remaining at 7. On any balanced outlook, MARCON looks set to remain at 7 for the remainder of 2013, and probably at least until late spring 2014.


The sp'1800s look very likely in November. Even the 1900s look 'briefly' viable before year end, although if we reach those exuberant levels, we'll surely see some significant - and understandable, year end profit taking.

Whilst QE continues, this remains a powerfully bullish market, fuelled with huge amounts of Fed induced liquidity.


A drop to MARCON 6 looks unlikely until late spring 2014...and MARCON 5 not until early autumn. That is assuming the markets level out in the sp'1900/2000 range by March/April.

Considering QE-taper looks off the agenda until spring 2014, this market looks set to just 'broadly' keep on rising.

Saturday, 19 October 2013

Spain moves to MARCON 7, Italy to follow

Along with the US, the world indexes are continuing to battle higher. Even the EU PIIGS of Spain and Italy are now pulling away from the lows of summer 2012. Spain has just moved to MARCON 7 - the first time since late 2007. Italy looks set to follow within the next few weeks.

*US sp'500..holding at MARCON 7

Generally, I will only detail MARCON for the US sp'500, but the recent breaks higher in Spain and Italy are very note worthy.

Spain, monthly

Italy, monthly


Suffice to say, the price action in both the above charts is very bullish, and as I noted last weekend, the outlook into spring 2014 looks increasingly clear.

With the US debt ceiling out of the way, I have to think both US and world equities are seeing another multi-month up wave that will endure into next year.

Tuesday, 15 October 2013

New page, 1998-2004 MARCON

I have added a major new page (see left side column) which details how MARCON would have been defined in the late 1990s, across the tech boom peak, and then down to the 2002 lows.

Holding at MARCON 7 into 2014 ?

As things are, with the debt ceiling can due to be kicked into November, and from there, another kick into summer/autumn 2014, it looks like we'll be holding at MARCON 7 at least into spring 2014. At that point, we might even be trading in the sp'2000s. No doubt, that is a disturbing thought for most of the remaining doomer bears out there.

Ohh, and here is a 20yr chart covering MARCON....and the three giant bubbles.

sp'monthly9b - MARCON, 20yr

*as ever, comments are most welcome.

Saturday, 12 October 2013

Welcome to MARCON

US equities have rallied for four and a half years, and the sp'666 low is looking a bizarrely long way down. For the months, but more so, the coming few years, the MARCON status level will be here to offer a very simple summary of the Market Condition of US equities.

So..lets begin.. :)



Especially to all my regular readers out there, hello, and welcome to another new page of the Permabear Doomster world!

I have been thinking about adding something like this for a very long time, even before I started the original PD' page some 18 months ago.

So...we start at MARCON 7. What does that even mean though? 

Go have a read!

I have already added some extensive notes on the criteria/philosophy of MARCON. These are provisional, and I will certainly continue to add further background/details to this blog/site. So, keep an eye on the 'Pages' block on the left side.

As ever, I am open to ideas from any of you out there, but I think I will at least 'broadly' stick to the criteria I have chosen.

At the very least, maybe MARCON will provoke a few thoughts and ideas about the next bear market...whenever that might eventually begin.