Thursday, 14 July 2016

The move to the upside

After a year of broad price chop - spanning from sp'2134 to 1810, the market has picked a direction, and its to the upside. Further gains to the sp'2200s look due in Aug/September, which should equate to Dow 18800/900s.




Note the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle for the Dow, set to turn positive as early as the latter half of July, or more viable, at the August 1st open.

Similarly, the sp'500 is set for a bullish MACD cross in early August.

... and that will take us back to MARCON 7.

Friday, 1 July 2016

A big move remains due

Despite another hyper-ramp from sp'1991 to 2108, it likely marks another failure for the equity bulls to break above the May 2015 high of 2134. The bigger monthly charts are clear, having traded within a narrow range for over a year... a big move remains due.




Note the narrow range bollinger bands. As many in the mainstream recognise, a big breakout is way or another.

re: Ichimoku. Things only get interesting for the deflationary doomer bears, on a pierce into the green cloud.. which is around sp'1690. By October, that will have risen to around 1770.

A break into the cloud will offer a washout to at least the 1625/1575 zone.

Any monthly close - in the remainder of 2016, under sp'1500, would bode in favour of the 'crazy talk' targets... sp'600/500 in 2017/18. However, I don't see that as viable, as the central banks would massively intervene.