Tuesday, 8 March 2016

Remaining broadly bearish

Despite the sp'500 clawing from the Feb'11th low of 1810 to 2009, the giant monthly cycles remain outright bearish. Unless the equity bulls can attain a monthly close above the monthly 10MA (currently 2011), the broader bearish outlook for spring/summer 2016 remains on track



So... we're still at MARCON 6.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) is currently ticking higher, as the market has seen a considerable rally into March. Yet.. it is very probable that it is a classic bear market rally, with much lower levels this spring and into the summer.

At the current rate, with the MACD (black line) at 52.354, we won't see a move below the key zero threshold until late May/June.

Ichimoku - an update

I thought I'd highlight the Ichimoku chart...


For those that like the 2007/09 pattern, equity bears should be battling to pierce the top of the green cloud.. which in April will be within the 1650/25 zone.

Any price action <1600 should sound major alarm bells.

An April/May monthly close inside the green cloud will open the door to a FULL retrace of the gains since 2011.. back to the 1100/1000 zone.

Holding at MARCON 6